Joni Ernst’s Shocking 2026 Exit: A Senate Power Shift Begins

Senator Joni Ernst Announces She Will Not Seek Re-Election in 2026, Shaking Up Iowa Politics

In a move that is set to dramatically reshape the political landscape of Iowa and the battle for the U.S. Senate, Republican Senator Joni Ernst has decided she will not seek a third term in the 2026 election, according to multiple sources who spoke with CNN.

The 55-year-old senator, a prominent figure in the GOP, has been privately deliberating this decision for several months. She recently began informing close associates and friends of her choice, with a formal public announcement expected as soon as next week.

This retirement instantly creates a critical open Senate seat in Iowa, triggering a frenzied behind-the-scenes scramble among potential successors from both major parties. The race is immediately projected to be one of the most competitive and expensive Senate battles in the nation for the 2026 midterms.

The Republican Contender: Ashley Hinson Steps Up

On the Republican side, all signs point to U.S. Representative Ashley Hinson preparing to launch a campaign for the seat. National Republican officials, who had anticipated this scenario, have long viewed Hinson as a formidable and strong candidate capable of consolidating party support. Her entry into the race is considered highly likely.

A Crowded Democratic Field Awaits

For Democrats, this open seat represents a golden opportunity to reclaim influence in a state that has recently trended red. A diverse primary field is already taking shape. The declared Democratic candidates include:

• State Rep. Josh Turek, a Paralympian gold medalist in wheelchair basketball.
• State Sen. Zach Wahls, known for his viral advocacy and leadership within the state legislature.
• Nathan Sage, the executive director of the Knoxville Chamber of Commerce.
• Jackie Norris, the chair of the Des Moines School Board.

The primary will likely focus on which candidate can build a coalition to appeal to a broad swath of Iowans in a general election.

Ernst’s Legacy and Recent Controversy

Senator Ernst, an Iraq War veteran, first rode into the Senate in 2014 on a wave of tea party support. Her campaign was famously built on a pledge to slash government waste, encapsulated by her signature slogan: “Make ‘em squeal.”

However, her tenure has not been without recent controversy. She faced significant criticism after a town hall moment where, responding to a constituent worried about Medicaid cuts, she replied, “we are all going to die.” The remark was widely circulated and drew fire from political opponents.

Politically, Ernst often navigated the complex divide within the Republican Party, striving to balance the loyalists of former President Donald Trump’s “Make America Great Again” movement with the party’s more traditional wing.

Iowa’s Political pendulum

Iowa’s status as a swing state has evolved over the past decade. It was twice won by Barack Obama before swinging heavily to Donald Trump in 2016 and 2020. While Democrats found surprise success in the 2018 midterms, Republicans have since dominated nearly every statewide race.

Despite this, Iowa Democrats see a glimmer of hope. They point to stronger-than-expected performances in recent special elections, including a recent victory in a conservative state Senate district, as evidence that the political winds could be shifting once again. The open Ernst seat is their best chance to test that theory.

Nationally, Democrats are working to expand the map of competitive Senate races. They need a net gain of four seats to reclaim the majority in the chamber. This Iowa open seat, alongside key races in North Carolina, Maine, Ohio, and Texas, is now a central pillar of that strategy.

Joni Ernst’s announcement not to seek re-election in 2026 has triggered a significant shift in Iowa politics. The state, known for its political oscillation, has seen notable swings in recent elections. With this unexpected development, Iowa Democrats are hopeful for a resurgence, citing recent wins in special elections as a positive sign. The open Senate seat left by Ernst is seen as a crucial opportunity for them to gauge the changing political landscape in the state. This news comes as Democrats nationwide aim to secure a Senate majority, with Iowa now emerging as a key battleground alongside other pivotal races across the country.