Rublev’s Ultimate 10th Quarterfinal Chance: Can He Finally Win?

Rublev Seeks to Shatter Quarterfinal Curse Against Dangerous Auger-Aliassime at US Open

The pressure cooker of the US Open’s second Monday will test two of the tour’s most explosive talents, as Andrey Rublev faces Felix Auger-Aliassime in a high-stakes fourth-round clash. For one, it’s a chance to break a devastating streak; for the other, an opportunity to recapture past glory.

Andrey Rublev steps onto the court at the Billie Jean King National Tennis Center with a specific, haunting number on his mind: 0-9. The world-class Russian has reached the quarterfinal stage of a Grand Slam nine times in his career but has failed to convert any of those appearances into a semifinal berth. This match represents a monumental opportunity to secure a 10th chance and, finally, get over the hump.

Despite his consistent presence in the ATP’s top 10 and his mastery of the Masters 1000 level, that elusive major breakthrough has remained just out of reach. The path for Rublev is as favorable as it could be at this stage. Waiting in the quarterfinals would be the winner between Alex de Minaur and qualifier Leandro Riedi—a matchup where Rublev would undoubtedly be the heavy favorite. The mental weight of this match is immense, making it his most critical contest of the year.

Across the net stands a player all too familiar with immense expectations. Felix Auger-Aliassime announced himself to the world with a spectacular semifinal run at the 2021 US Open as a 21-year-old. Many predicted he would be a standard-bearer for the next generation of tennis greats. However, his career since has been a frustrating journey hampered by injuries and dramatic fluctuations in form.

The Canadian possesses some of the most formidable weapons in the game—a thunderous first serve and a devastating forehand. Yet, his overall game has struggled for consistency, making him the definition of a high-risk, high-reward player. He is capable of stunning victories, as he proved in the previous round by dismantling World No. 3 Alexander Zverev. Yet, he is equally capable of head-scratching losses to lower-ranked opponents.

This stylistic contrast sets the stage for a fascinating battle. Auger-Aliassime will look to unleash his power and keep points short, while Rublev will aim to use his superior consistency, world-class returning, and multifaceted groundstrokes to extend rallies and force errors.

The historical data heavily favors the Russian. In their head-to-head record, Rublev dominates Auger-Aliassime 7-1. This one-sided history adds another layer of psychological intrigue. Can Auger-Aliassime overcome this mental hurdle, or will Rublev’s clear tactical advantage prevail once more?

While both players are known for their emotional intensity on court, Rublev’s more complete and reliable game makes him the sensible pick. He is the more consistent player from the baseline and has repeatedly proven he knows how to solve the Auger-Aliassime puzzle.

All signs point to Rublev weathering an early storm of aces from the Canadian, finding his rhythm, and leveraging his historical edge to book his place in a tenth Grand Slam quarterfinal. The real question won’t be answered on Monday, but the following round: if given this golden opportunity, can he finally end his infamous quarterfinal curse?

Prediction: Andrey Rublev to win in four sets.